All eyes are riveted on June 23 meeting of the non-NDA opposition parties slated to be held in Patna. The crucial agenda is to find a common meeting ground to resolve the jigsaw puzzle called the Opposition Unity and unitedly face the Narendra Modi-led BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Although being held on the initiative of Bihar chief minister Mr Nitish Kumar but not before he secured a mandate from the Congress after his recent meetings with the party president Mr Mallikarjun Kharge and former MP Mr Rahul Gandhi; it did suffer a hiccup, he met most of the top opposition leaders to lay ground for this crucial meeting. The suo motu decision of Mr Kumar to fix June 12 as the meeting date ostensibly without consulting, as it seems, the main component Congress, had to be changed. The reason forwarded was that neither Mr Kharge nor Mr Gandhi was available on that date and so did DMK chief and Tamil Nadu chief minister Mr M K Stalin subsequently showed his unavailability.
So, the fault line.
Interestingly, Congress and DMK are ruling alliance partners in the southern state. So, it seems both were moving in tandem to annul the unilateral decision of Mr Kumar in fixing the date ostensibly to send a signal. The move paid off. Nevertheless, it ensured that both top leaders of the Congress would personally attend the meeting.
What makes June 23 meeting more significant, apart from the opposition parties coming together for the first time publicly post-2014, is the effort to make it result oriented, whether it happens or not time will tell. Significantly, the parties agreed, sensing short time left before general elections, by ensuring participation of the top leaders and not their representatives so that decision making is not left for another day.
If things go well, the meeting has the potential to herald into a new era of opposition unity notwithstanding fault lines that are bound to happen on road to opposition unity. Given the prime ministerial ambitions of some of the regional leaders and Congress’s insistence to become the fulcrum of the unity diagram, there could still be many a slip between the proverbial cup and the lip.
However, the one big question that would find answer only on the D-day is whether all leaders of the Congress and regional parties actually reach Patna or not. If the hosts; Janata Dal (U) national president Mr Lalan Singh and ally Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and state deputy chief minister Mr Tejashwi Yadav are to be believed, most of the leaders barring Bharat Rashtriya Samithi chief and Telengana chief minister Mr K Chandrashekhar Rao, have agreed to share the platform.
Even if most of the other leaders including mercurial Trinamool Congress president and West Bengal chief minister Ms Mamta Banerjee, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo and Delhi chief minister Mr Arvind Kejriwal and Samajwadi Party chief Mr Akhilesh Yadav turn up for the ice-breaking meeting, certainly it will be a coup of sorts. The fact that all three leaders have publicly expressed reservations on Congress taking the centerstage and have in the recent past spoken about floating a non-BJP, non-Congress front, makes the meeting a keenly watched event.
By agreeing to hold a joint meeting at the level of the top leaders, possibly the first hurdle seems to have been crossed. In the midst of inflated egos and ambitions of some the regional leaders and a Congress buoyed by an emphatic electoral victory in Karnataka trouncing the all-mighty BJP despite Mr Modi leading from the front hinting to dictate terms, doubts had arisen if the leaders will seriously meet and thrash out the issue.
“All opposition parties have agreed to this… Congress chief Mr Mallikarjun Kharge and party leader Mr Rahul Gandhi, West Bengal chief minister Ms Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party chief Mr Akhilesh Yadav, Jharkhand chief minister and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader Mr Hemant Soren, Shiv Senna (UT) chief Mr Uddhav Thackeray, Nationalist Congress Party chief Mr Sharad Pawar, Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin, Delhi chief minister Mr Arvind Kejriwal, CPI general secretary Mr D Raja, CPM general secretary Mr Sitaram Yechury and RSP leader Mr Dipankar Bhattacharya will attend the meet,” said the JD(u) chief.
Another key factor in this line up, if it turned up for Patna meeting, is Congress and AAP agreeing to share space in the backdrop of a showdown between the two on the issue of controversial ordinance issued by the Central government to dilute the rights of Kejriwal government in the matter of transfers and postings of bureaucrats. The Congress leaders from Delhi led by former Union Minister, Mr Ajay Maken and Punjab leaders were up in arms against any move by their party to bail out Mr Kejriwal on the ordinance issue as they had felt that the AAP damaging the Congress in election after election to indirectly help BJP in different states.
Whether the meet would hold at least preliminary discussions about the modalities to contest Lok Sabha elections particularly the seat distribution formula, is not clear at this stage. However, an idea floated by the host Mr Kumar- one opposition candidate on one seat- and already discussed with leaders of different parties while on a mission to individually meet and prepare them for the meeting, could be part of the agenda.
The meeting has the potential of failing if any of the participating parties raised the leadership issue. Exigencies of the situation demand that this issue should be left untouched, kept for the post-poll scenario. Frankly speaking it is a question of survival of all the opposition parties, particularly their leaders, to face the Modi-challenge.
The first and foremost endeavour of these parties seeking to unite should be to win as many seats as possible and help each other to achieve that. Let the leadership matters wait for another day.
Another contentious point to be thrashed out is whether the parties will come together only for Lok Sabha elections or the next around of important state assembly elections in states such as Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Even if they do not agree on coming together on a broader scale, at least meeting points should be found on how not to damage the cause of a particular party which is strong in a particular state or area.
The problem might occur as Congress due to its pan-India presence might not like to totally abstain from states where regional parties are strong. And the neo-growing AAP if remained unrelenting in changing its intention of contesting all state assembly elections whether it has presence there or not.
Both Ms Banerjee, who had proposed that states like West Bengal should be left entirely to Trinamool Congress, and Mr Kejriwal need to relook into their strategy for a broader cause. Or else the opposition unity, as in the past, will be a tedious proposal.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.