Asia is an important region for all and India has very carefully managed its relations with countries in South Asia. One of these relationships was with Sri Lanka where India and China both tried to win over the country in the recent past. However with the recent elections that took place, the victory of Anura Dissanayake, leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) maybe difficult for India. His electoral win brings new shift in political landscape of Sri Lanka and hint makes Indian politics, in turn Indian geopolitics unsustainable in the present equilibrium while giving rise to opportunities for China’s re-emergence.
The Preceding Economic and Political Landscape
In the year 2022, Sri Lanka went through one of the worst economic challenges in her history. Intolerance for corruption, gross economic mismanagement, and external factors like the Covid-19 pandemic and increased global inflation had brought the country on its knees. The public led by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government incurred infuriating situations as prices of necessities such as basic goods went high, supply was low, almost no economic upturn was being experienced. Pivotal time, and People began expressing their dissatisfaction in the form of mass protests which led to the resignation of the Rajapaksa government. With the citizens’ rebellions fearing his life, Gotabaya Rajapaksa decided to leave the country, resulting to disorder in the island nation.
Taking over from the Rajapaksa government was not easy, but what the people hoped for came to pass when Unil Wickremesinghe took over that office. Policymakers of Wickremesinghe’s government assumed that painful but unavoidable reforms were necessary in order to prevent a complete economic collapse. Under his stewardship and cooperation with the world, inflation compressed from an incredible 70 percent in 2022 to the manageable level by the year 2024. Further more, Sri Lanka acquired debt from the IMF with the help of India , India extended a $4 billion bailout package to the country as well. India’s intervention in the recovery of Sri Lanka was also important as it brought about a lot of money in developing infrastructural projects like that of a oil pipeline and a planned land bridge project for the two countries.
India’s Strategic Penetration in Wickremesinghe’s Era
There was a good relation between India and Wickremesinghe’s government, as New Delhi was eager to cement its hold over the island nation. Wickremesinghe was not the kind of politician who openly supported India but he appreciated their need for security especially in light of the rising threat of China in the region. Under his regime, Sri Lanka imposed an embargo on docking of Chinese research vessels in its ports up to the year 2025 owing to the Indian allegations that these boats were spy vessels.
It was inevitable that such strategically important infrastructural projects like that of the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport would be awarded to Indian firms as well. This development, alongside the concession of the controversial 99-year lease of the Hambantota port to China in 2017, had its risks for India. With the exit of the Rajapaksa family from power, China’s engagements in Sri Lanka had been reduced to an extent. The administration of Wickremesinghe appeared to support more the strategic vision of India.
Emergence of Anura Dissanayake and the JVP
Nevertheless, this phase of India-Sri Lanka relations came to an end with the 2024 Presidential election. Dissanayake Anura of the JVP Party won the elections against both Wickremesinghe and Premadasa. The win of Dissanayake signifies the change in the state of Sri Lankans who have had to endure many years of misgovernance characterized by austerity and economic hardships. Proposed reforms by Wickremesinghe were, though, necessary in the eyes of the economists, highly opposed by ordinary Sri Lankans who were the ones affected most by the increased tax rates, cuts on subsidies and job layoffs.
The history of JVP under the leadership of Dissanayake is quite contradictory when it comes to communion with India. Its origins are rooted within a revolutionary Marxism, and the organization undertook two insurrection attempts that failed in the 1970s and 1980s. In the late 1980s, the party’s ties with India were at their lowest because the government of New Delhi got involved in the internal conflict in the Island nation. The JVP came out strongly against India claiming that it was an expansionist country and a bully in the region.
Though the JVP has abandoned its violent past, the radical anti-India sentiment that the party popularized has remained. This is a cause for concern for New Delhi as it may not be in Dissanayake’s interest to devote as much time and effort towards Indian interests as was the case with Wickremesinghe’s government. In fact, Dissanayake’s party has already pronounced its commitment to abort energy undertakings granted to Indian Adani enterprises, paving the way for diversification in economic policy.
The Threat of Resurgence of China
For India, the most sobering of all is possibly that the resurgence of the Chinese influence in Sri Lanka, the island nation which has shown trends of inclination towards India. Dissanayake has made attempts at courting India as he met with the Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar earlier this year, but the links of his party with China are still very intact. A few weeks prior to arriving in New Delhi, Dissanayake also went to China, which again shows the historical connections of the JVP with the Chinese Communist Party.
Dissanayake’s political party, the JVP has denounced Chinese investment projects most notably the contentious Hambantota port project, but the warm relations between them indicate that there may be renewed interest among Dissanayake’s officials towards Chinese investments. This transformation of Sri Lanka’s geopolitical positioning may also translate into a return of China to the central stage after being on the periphery ever since the fall of the Rajapaksa dynasty. This is alarming given the propensity for Chinese invasions and economic enterprises in Sri Lanka, especially with the regions bordering the comma-shaped eastern territory of India.
The Inconsistencies in India’s Inner Politics
Dissanayake coming to power presents a conundrum for India. Although the new President has gone on record to talk of clean politics and tried to distance himself from the radical past associated with the JVP which Dissanayake leads, it can be foreseen that his government will not be favouring India’s strategic and economic interests as much. The recent trends such as the cancellation of Indian energy projects and the aided resurgence of Chinese influence are new threats to Indian diplomacy.
India’s challenge will be to engage with the new administration without compromising its security and economic interests in Sri Lanka. If China is to rise again, then India will have to change its diplomatic approach in South Asia, or else it remains outside looking in.
In the next few months, the ways in which Dissanayake’s government manages relations with India and China, and how this affects India’s action in Sri Lanka, will become clearer. As of now, the only thing that can be said for sure is that Tamil Nadu and the rest of India’s control over Sri Lanka politically has been on a decline and in the geography of South Asia, the pieces on the chess board have been moved once again.
Sharif Hussain Khan, Delhi-Based Author & Researcher