Srinagar: With a small but constant decline in the number of COVID19 cases, experts in J&K are of the opinion that the Third Wave may be approaching a plateau, a phase where there is little change in the daily positive tally.
Prof S Saleem Khan, Head Department of Social and Preventive Medicine at GMC Srinagar said that over the last few days, the test positivity rate in J&K was decreasing slightly.
“This is a crude indicator that the peak is slowing down and approaching a plateau. However, due to rapid community spread and minimal symptoms, not many people go for COVID testing who exhibit minimum symptoms or have a positive case in a family,” he said.
Over the past four days, COVID19 cases have been declining in almost every district of J&K. While citing the case trends in the Jammu and Kashmir divisions, Prof Khan said, Jammu was having more evident signs of a plateau and its COVID19 curve was almost flat over the past four days.
In Kashmir division, and in J&K cumulative, he said, there was a decline and a downward curve in cases. He said the cases in individual districts have been fluctuating but most districts have a pronounced decline.
“Except district Kupwara in Kashmir division which seems to have a late spike and may not have peaked yet,” he said. Similarly, in Jammu division, he said, district Poonch was trailing behind the other districts in terms of its decline in cases.
Prof Khan said there was a drop of around 2000 active cases every day since 26 January in J&K. “In addition, and perhaps the most important indicator – the positivity rate is falling from 9 percent that we had a few days ago,” he said, further elaborating that the positivity had dropped to 6 percent in J&K.
“The actual number of COVID cases in the current Third Wave could be much more than reported through testing,” he said. He warned against complacency that may creep in due to the decline in cases.
“Lowering of guard can prove disastrous. People shall follow COVID appropriate behaviour including social distancing and wearing facemasks. The vaccination has helped in reducing severity of illness and those due for various doses shall take them as per schedule,” he said.
In the past four days, the number of reported COVID19 cases in J&K dropped from 6570 on January 25 to 5606 on January 26, to 4959 on January 27 and to 4354 on January 28. Similarly, the positivity rate has dropped three percent during this period.