Elections are a serious business for BJP at times even more than the governance and tackling burning issues. Ever since 2014 victory of the party under the indomitable Mr Narendra Modi, barring a few set backs here and there, the BJP’s electoral juggernaut has been successfully on the roll.
The party under its newly, since 2014, acquired culture which is far removed from the core education of the RSS, has used all means to ensure an electoral victory.
Never short of pulling surprises and never short of resorting to out-of-the-box mechanism to ensure a victory, the party is at it again when faced with assembly elections in three important states of Hindi belt to be followed by 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
By drafting national level and established leaders to contest assembly elections the BJP strategists have rattled everyone including the candidates themselves. The current debate, other things apart, is also centered around whether it is a promotion for these leaders or demotion.
If a section of the party’s top leadership is to be believed these senior leaders by being nominated to contest assembly elections have a chance to have a go at the chief ministerial berth. Is that so?
It could have been a convincing argument if a solitary leader would have been asked to shift base from New Delhi to the state. If the latest list of candidates for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, is any indication they are being moved out by the hordes.
So, who among them will rate high his or her chances as the probable chief minister. It is a difficult proposition to be addressed. The first challenge, say in these states, will be to win the elections particularly, in the face of strong anti-incumbency being faced by nearly two-decades old Shivraj Singh Chouhan Madhya Pradesh government and out of power but faced with leadership crises in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Then the uphill task of finding a chief ministerial nominee. It will not be a hard task for the high command to pick any of the senior leaders but it will entail making them acceptable on ground.
Is it a sure-short recipe for electoral victory? Perhaps the BJP big-wigs and strategists firmly believe even at the cost of disquiet this move has created in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
The ostensible strategy behind such a move seems to be to put the party’s best foot forward and draft the tried and trusted leaders to ensure electoral victory in these states. And, also to field these heavy weights from constituencies rated as “difficult” and not won by the BJP in last couple of elections.
The mother of all surprises has been sending back Union Agriculture Minister Mr Narendra Singh Tomar to Madhya Pradesh. He has been fielded from Dimari seat which has not been won by the BJP during last three elections. Incidentally, though it forms part of his Lok Sabha seats but despite that the party lost the recent bi-election caused by the defection of the sitting Congress MLA to BJP.
Mr Tomar, though not a big name in national politics and made to contest assembly elections after two-decades, has acquired the status of a trouble-shooter and a national leader as the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo had repeatedly drafted him as poll in-charge in important states such as Uttar Pradesh and others.
Does sending him back to his parent state that too to contest assembly election reflects a promotion for him? So, the move to draft large number of MPs from these states to contest assembly elections?
The development is being seen as per the viewers’ own convenience. But fact of the matter is that relying on established national leaders to contest assembly elections is a demotion. And that too when there is no clarity as to who the chief ministerial candidate would be.
In Madhya Pradesh, apart from Mr Tomar, Union Minister Mr Prahald Singh Patel and Mr Faggan Singh Kulaste have also been fielded from Narsingpur and Niwas seats. Although the two leaders have their family boroughs but their status is quite low in the BJP’s hierarchical scheme of things. Same is the case in Rajasthan.
The other reason behind the move could be that the party strategists (read Modi and Shah) have planned this move with an eye on Lok Sabha elections. There has been talk in the BJP circles about reducing the anti-incumbency flab from the Modi dispensation as it will be completing a decade in government. This could be a move to shed the anti-incumbency that the sitting MPs have been facing in their respective constituencies. But is not a surfeit of transfers from Centre to the states?
These senior leaders including some other MPs have in fact been cornered by the high command as they have now more than one electoral responsibility to fulfill. To say that their hands are full will not be out of place.
For example, Mr Tomar before being asked to contest assembly elections was made election in charge in Madhya Pradesh. It would entail now that he is now required not only to win his own election but ensure the BJP returns to power in the state. Not only that, leaders like him and Mr Joshi and Kulaste and national general secretary Mr Kailash Vijayvargiya, nominated to contest from one of the constituencies in Indore, would have a greater responsibility to perform in the Lok Sabha elections as well.
What should worry the BJP top brass, is that most of these senior leaders have accepted the offer reluctantly and are unhappy. Mr Vijayvargiya has expressed his reservations without mincing any words immediately after his name was declared.
The million-dollar question is whether the incumbent chief minister Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan working under the self-acquired title of “mama” will take all this lying low. Apart from plenty of hints dropped by Mr Modi during his recent tour to Madhya Pradesh, this move should not leave him in any day that his days seemed to be numbered.
A strong signal emanating from this move and hinted at Mr Chouhan, though he at last getting the party mandate, is that there are now more contenders for the top job in the state than the earlier his solitary figure. Fact of the matter is that he has all through this been ploughing a lone furrow.
The same formula is being used by the BJP in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana also. All these states are currently not ruled by the BJP.
Has this move been propelled by the fact that the BJP in these states is beset with factional rumblings with many of the state leaders now willing to flex their muscles ahead of elections? This is a reality which the party’s leadership is faced with but trying to brush it under the carpet under one or the other formula. The idea is to divert attention from factional rumblings by creating an alternate narrative with a potential to grab headlines.
Still a bigger test case awaits the BJP in Rajasthan where the party big-wigs have not been able to come to terms with former chief minister and a strong contender for the post Mrs Vasundhra Raje. She is a strong and popular leader totally ignored both by Mr Modi and Mr Shah whose diktats she refused to take.
Not naming her the chief ministerial candidate and instead creating competition for her for the top post in the state, has the strong potential of further ruffling her feathers. She has already been publicly humiliated by the top leadership during party programmes in the state.
Both she and Mr Chouhan have maintained a cool posture. Is it the proverbial lull before the storm.