With two major summits on the horizon, the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg is scheduled for August 22-24, followed by the G20 Summit in New Delhi that will be held at the newly inaugurated International Exhibition-cum-Convention Centre (IECC) complex at Pragati Maidan on September 9-10, all eyes are on the potential face-to-face bilateral meeting between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Amidst the backdrop of strained relations, their meeting could hold the key to rebuilding trust between the two Asian giants. In addition, the crucial encounter between the two Asian giants and its outcome could have significant implications for regional dynamics and global affairs.
Recent diplomatic engagements between India and China have laid the groundwork for a potential bilateral meeting at the upcoming summits. The discussions between India’s Minister of External Affairs, Dr S Jaishankar, and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, during the ASEAN summit in Jakarta on June 14, followed by another meeting between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Wang Yi at the sidelines of the BRICS meeting on July 24 in Johannesburg, have rekindled hope for dialogue and cooperation.
The Ministry of External Affairs’ statement reflects a more cautious tone, pointing to an “erosion of strategic trust” due to the ongoing border situation since 2020. It indicates that significant challenges persist in the bilateral relationship, necessitating careful navigation during the upcoming summits.
The meeting between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Wang Yi, the new Foreign Minister of China, at the bottom of the BRICS meeting conveyed that the situation along the LAC in the Western Sector of the India-China boundary since 2020 had eroded strategic trust and the public and political basis of the relationship. NSA emphasized the importance of continuing efforts to fully resolve the situation and restore peace and tranquillity in the border areas to remove impediments to normalcy in bilateral relations. One positive trend has been that the bilateral strategic communication between India and China’s top military leadership continues, despite lingering mistrust, signifying both countries’ recognition of the significance of their relationship not only for themselves but also for the broader region and the world.
During these meetings, the emphasis on finding peaceful resolutions to the border situation underscores the urgency to stabilize the India-China boundary. Both sides recognize that regular business ties can only be restored by ensuring a peaceful and stable border. China’s recent statements have projected a friendly tone, quoting Wang Yi’s mention of an “important consensus” reached between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi during the Bali G20 Summit. India has so far not commented on the statement. This seemingly is a positive development that marks a notable bilateral milestone, hinting at potential relationship progress. The forthcoming BRICS Summit is expected to delve into various issues, including political and security cooperation, with the involvement of Russia and South Africa being critical. Ukraine, Global terrorism discussions over the BRICS currency will be closely watched, as it could affect the broader global economic landscape.
Out of all, the changing dynamics between China and India will have the global community’s attention. The Economist reported on their relationship’s evolving military and economic fundamentals, prompting a reassessment of how they engage with each other and the world.
The hope among some countries, notably the United States and its allies, is that India’s frontier friction with China will lead it towards a democratic coalition seeking to constrain Chinese power.
India has drawn closer to America since they signed a civil nuclear cooperation pact in 2008. But their alignment has accelerated since a series of clashes on the Indian frontier with China, including one in 2020 that killed 20 Indian troops and several Chinese ones.
The Economist says India’s armed forces have since undergone a historic shift of focus away from Pakistan. They have transferred about 70,000 troops, fighter jets, and surface-to-air missiles to the frontier with China. They have also expanded joint exercises with America and its allies, especially Australia and Japan. America has provided some intelligence and high-altitude training for Indian border forces too.
China’s exact motivations on the border are murky says the Economist. It may have responded to recent Indian road-building, which enabled more extensive patrolling, or to frustration at a lack of progress in negotiations on a settlement. Or it may have wanted to penalize India for its earlier rapprochement with America, to expose the relative weakness of Indian forces and to show that they cannot rely on American help. The Economist further says that the war in Ukraine has provided another spur. Indian commanders fret about their dependence on Russian arms. India wants to buy advanced American weaponry and to make more in India. In Washington in June, the prime minister, Narendra Modi, made progress with deals to buy armed aerial drones and to manufacture fighter-jet engines in India jointly.
However, for Indian strategists, India has just shifted from a non-aligned to a multilinked or multi-aligned strategy and nothing more except that today, Indian foreign affairs are expanding, defence is getting stronger and relations with the rest of the globe are more visible and robust. The latest is India’s defence deal to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets for its navy and three Scorpene class submarines. The upcoming BRICS Summit is expected to be under the lens of the United States and its Western allies. At the BRICS summit, several issues will be addressed, including political and security cooperation, where the involvement of Russia and South Africa will be crucial. Additionally, discussions on the BRICS currency will take centre stage. On the other hand, China emphasises its commitment to multilateralism and supporting the democratisation of international relations, stating that China and India can be opportunities rather than threats to each other’s development.
The simmering tensions between India and China involve a complex border issue, with occasional clashes leading to casualties and tensions. The border dispute remains a significant challenge for both countries including China’s too much intervention in South Asia countries neighbouring Indian borders. It has implications for their respective development and the global landscape. The long-standing engagement between India and China has its complexities, with multiple rounds of talks between military commanders striving to resolve border flashpoints. However, a few significant flashpoints persist, underscoring the delicate nature of the situation.
The centuries-old cultural bond between India and China adds a layer of historical significance to their relations. Yet, the shared 3,440km long border and LoAC remain a volatile point of contention, with territorial claims and infrastructure development fuelling confrontations.
As both countries possess nuclear capabilities, any escalation carries devastating consequences. Moreover, economic repercussions loom, given China’s status as one of India’s largest trading partners. The impact of the upcoming summits and the potential bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping could significantly shape the future trajectory of India-China relations and have far-reaching consequences on regional and global stability, more so post Covid19.
As the world eagerly awaits the upcoming summits and potential bilateral meetings between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, the hope remains that the dialogue will pave the way for renewed trust and stability between the neighbouring countries. Their interactions and decisions will undoubtedly reverberate on the global stage.
Author is a regular contributor to Greater Kashmir