COVID-19epidemic is a global crisis now, engulfing dozens of countries in an economic crunch. Nearly three months sincethe first case of Covid-19 appeared in Wuhan, China, the disease continues tospread unchecked around the world. Recently, Italy announced lockdown andquarantined more than 16 million people because of heavy surge in corona viruscases. John Hopkins University reported more than 3594 deaths globally whilemore than 106,161 confirmed cases of Corona virus. In response to the global impact of COVID-19,World Bank recently pledged up to 12 billion $ dollars, including 8 billion $to finance countries dealing with corona virus outburst. On 5 March a study fromChina, reported that children are as likely infected as adults. This key piece of data supported the schoolclosures as an effective intervention. In J&K, Govt also announced closureof primary schools to protect and prevent COVID-19 spread. Infecting a largepopulace daily, this disease has caused politico-economic fallout globally. Thepolitical fallout, in some cases, could further complicate restraint efforts.Experts like Urasia Group (political risk analyst body) are analyzing thechallenges faced by authorities in some of the key battlegrounds against thedisease.
Chinabeing home to most of the infected people, the stakes are the highest in China.President of China Xi Jinping takes this deadly epidemic as a crucialgovernance test for communist party of China and hence his own canon. China’sresponse to the virus i.e., Quarantines and local level lockdowns allowedBeijing to steadily bring down the number of new cases but consequently broughtChinas financial system to a standstill. A report from CNN revealed thatexperts anticipate that corona virus could plunge the China’s economy in firstquarter since the 1970’s. In China lot of sectors are affected, like automobilesales have plunged 80% and passenger traffic is down by 85 % from normallevels, so the economy in other words, has practically ground to a halt.Bloomberg Economics estimates that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 hasslowed to 1.2% year on year- the weakest on record. In addition, Bloombergreports that Corona virus could cost the global economy $ 2.7 Trillion thatapproximately equals the amount U.S has spend in Afghanistan for 19 long years.
Chinais now in the crucial period and the president Xi is forcing officials toresume work and production in areas of the country without large outbreaks, butalso to not relax vigilance in containing the disease. New infections would behighly embarrassing for Beijing at home as well as abroad. Local Govt’s areemploying electronic surveillance measures and other tools to monitor thepopulation and stop new outbreaks as millions return to work. But the overallresult of this cautious approach is at a very slow pace of recovery for theeconomy, which was already grappling with the effects of a long-running tradewar with the US. Beijing is thus under increasing pressure to roll out newstimulus measures. The authorities for now are focused mainly on fairlytargeted measures – lower lending rates, fiscal aid to local governments, andsuspension of employment-related taxes. The human and economic cost of thecorona virus epidemic is climbing across China and beyond. In just over a week, South Korea has becomethe second largest epicentre of the spreading Corona virus after China withlarge number of cases (over 6,000). There are some accusations about the MoonJae-In’s administration that they have not moved hard and fast against COVID-19, due to this Presidents popularity is getting affected particularly whilegearing up for National Assembly Elections next month. Conservatives and otherdetractors allege that Moon has not imposed tougher restrictions on Chineseentering the country because he is prioritizing political and economicrelations with China at the expense of the Korean public’s health. Meanwhile,news of temporary closures at facilities operated by firms viewed as criticaldrivers of South Korea’s economy such as Samsung, Hyundai, and LG hasheightened concerns about virus related supply chain disruptions. If moreKorean business operations are halted or curtailed, voters are likely to becomemore anxious and resentful. Japan in response to weaker economy and Coronavirus spread, firstly focused on not stoking fear among the populace andmarkets about health risks, economic security and most important the Olympic Games to be held this summer inTokyo. But when situation was not under control, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’sGovernment redoubled its efforts to provide more support to halt the outbreak.Authorities last week issued an order for closure of elementary, middle, andhigh schools for several weeks to prevent COVID-19 spread. If more parts ofJapanese society and the economy go offline, the risk will increase thatmomentum behind preparations for the summer Olympics slows, feeding into fearsthat the Games might be cancelled. The loss of the Olympics would deal anotherblow to the public’s confidence in the economy and his leadership.
Italyis grappling with the largest number of cases in Europe; the Corona virus has asilver lining for the embattled Governments of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.Both members of the fragile ruling coalition, as well as opposition parties,would now struggle to make a convincing case for changing the Government. It isalso noteworthy that the regional Governments involved in fighting the outbreakare run by the far-right opposition party, which will increase incentives tomaintain a peaceful co-existence with the ruling parties in Rome. RegionalGovernments are responsible for healthcare policy, meaning they are heavilyinvolved in the response, but will also share some of the responsibility if thecrisis gets out of control. Though elections are unlikely this year, thelong-term impact of the crisis on political stability is more uncertain,especially if the health situation worsens dramatically or Italy is hit by asevere recession.
Talkingabout the U.S.A, the outbreak could be the first major crisis of PresidentDonald Trump administration and it is happening in an election year. It is noteasy to anticipate how the potential spread of the Corona virus could affectthe presidential race, but the balance of risks is more to the downside fortrump. His own actions could exacerbate fallout from a severe, persistentspread as citizens look to the government for clear and coherent action.
Indiais among the 15 most affected economies due to the Corona virus epidemic asslowdown of manufacturing in China disrupts World trade, according to a UNreport. The trade impact of the Coronavirus epidemic on India is estimated to be about 348 million dollars. ForIndia, the trade impact estimates to be the most for the chemical sector at 129million dollars, textiles, and apparel at 64 million dollars, automotive sectorat 34 million dollars, electrical machinery at 12 million dollars, leatherproducts at 13 million dollars, metal and metal products at 27 million dollarsand wood products and furniture at 15 million dollars. According to UN report COVID 19 outbreak isdisrupting world trade and could result in a 50 billion dollar decrease inexports across global value chains. The most affected sectors include precisioninstruments, machinery, automotive and communication equipments. Among the mostaffected economies are the European Union (USD 15.6 Billion), US (5.8 Billion),Japan (5.2 Billion), South Korea (3.8 Billion), Taiwan (2.6 Billion), Vietnam(2.3 Billion), Indonesia (312 Million dollars). Corona virus pummels Iranleadership as the data reveals spread is far worse than reported. About 2 dozenmembers of parliament and 15 other top figures are infected including Vicepresident, deputy health minister and an advisor to the head of judiciary. Ithas killed an advisor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Iran’s supreme leader. Therehas been 17 % surge in deaths between last Tuesday and Wednesday. The Govt’sresponse to the virus remains to be fragile and questionable. The officialshave rebuffed calls for quarantines and urged Iranians to participate innational elections and denied closing holy shrines to the public. Iran’s healthsystem was already battered by broad U.S economic sanctions that have curbedthe country’s ability to finance humanitarian imports
Dr.Muzaffar Shaheen Professor/Head, Dept. of Epidemiology & PreventiveMedicine; Dr. Abrar Ul Haq Wani is PhD Scholar, Dept. of Medicine FVSC &AH, SKUAST K.