Let me begin today’s column with a powerful statement of the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF). Its India representative while commenting on India knocking down China to become the world’s most populous country said:
“We see India’s 1.4 billion people as 1.4 billion opportunities. India’s story is a powerful one. It is a story of progress in education, public health and sanitation, economic development as well as technological advancements.”
According to the United Nations population estimates, announced in April 2023, India now has a population of 1,425,775,850, surpassing China for the first time. It is also the first time since 1950, when the UN first began keeping global population records, that China has been dislodged from the number one spot.
Assuming the status of being the world’s most populous country turned global heads towards India for the kind of population mix it has at the moment.
Just a year before the onset of Covid – 19 pandemic, A Standard Chartered Bank report had predicted a new world economic order with emerging markets, including India, at the heart of it.
The report highlighting the long-term forecast on the changing world economic order released on January 8, 2019, said: “India is likely to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2030, next only to China and overtaking the US.
Now a Wall Street Bank, Goldman Sachs, created waves globally on Monday when it released a report stating India will become the second largest economy in the world by 2075 surpassing not only Japan and Germany but also the US.
The long-term forecast of this investment bank “really is the window for India to get it right in terms of setting up manufacturing capacity, continuing to grow services, continuing the growth of infrastructure.
Besides, innovation and increasing worker productivity are going to be important for India, the world’s fifth-biggest economy. Remarkably, the report has tagged the balance sheets of private corporates and banks in India as healthy.
Any news that highlights India taking head-on or rubbing shoulders with the US is always a top priority item for the media outlets to deliberate upon. In fact, it makes a day for them as far as their news content is concerned.
So, in line with these sentiments, not only national media, but global outlets also exclusively presented the Goldman Sachs projections, which brought a breed of global economic experts to the table to debate it.
Earlier, a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections in February 2023 showed that India is likely to pip Germany and Japan to become the third biggest economy in the world, behind the USA and China, by 2027.
The IMF in its prediction showed that the Japanese and German economies will grow to $5.2 trillion and $4.9 trillion each by 2027 while India is expected to grow to $5.4 trillion, at current prices. Notably, these projections are based on nominal growth rates in dollar terms.
At that time, economic experts stated that India needs to grow at 14% every year, assuming its currency remains stable against the dollar, to become the world’s largest economy by 2047 – an occasion of 100 years of independence. Their forecast is based on the amount of developments taking place in the country on various front.
India has earned its place as a home to the world’s largest group of young people, and the world economic forum has listed half of the country’s population under the age of 25. The aspirations of a young population brigade is a shot in the arm of consumerism as it makes the economy vibrant. However, there are always challenges in such a situation as it demands massive job creation in various sectors of the economy, be it manufacturing or services sector.
Various economic reports highlighting the economic growth potential of India have focused on creating massive employment opportunities and the need to close a widening skills gap, raise the participation of women in the workforce, and ease labour laws.
Of course, the large population is an opportunity, but it has brought challenges also. The National Sample Survey Office (NSSO)’s 2020-21 survey is a constant reminder that throws light on multiple issues that India needs to address with respect to its population.
For instance, the Indian youth has to get engaged in productive work. According to the NSSO’s report released in March, nearly 33 per cent of India’s youth is neither employed nor in education or training (NEET).
A large part of it accrues to the burden of the care economy that is put on Indian women’s shoulders. Precisely, the country’s youth force needs to be nurtured and transformed into productive human resources.
There’s a phrase: “Problem-free isn’t fully prepared. And fully prepared isn’t fully engaged.”
Supporting youth development should not just be about building their competencies and connections, it should be an act to actively engage them in their own development and that of their societies, communities and the nation. So, make the youth partners in tackling pressing problems confronting us. They alone are the architects of the safe and prosperous future.
So, there is a need to focus on youth’s potential to change and improve. Allow the youth to face the formidable challenge of transforming the economic landscape of the country to get hold of the benchmark put in pl;ace by global agencies like the Goldman Sachs etc.
However, youth too have a responsibility to pull themselves out of the shell and be productive. They should not get themselves engaged in a rewardless competition of achieving fame that too without achieving anything. With the advent of social media platforms, most of our youth force has transformed itself into a Facebook community and many of these young people do nothing but sell themselves. They have dedicated their lives to self-promotion and have their own desperation to be famous not for their values but for their visibility. The irony is that most of the members of this youth generation are waiting for the future to arrive at their doorstep. During the course they lose time to capitalize on opportunities and remain a dead force.
So, the youth need to explore their capabilities on ground not only to earn their livelihood but also achieve real fame and should not turn themselves into fake junkies. Let their talent speak for them.
(The views are of the author & not the institution he works for)
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.