The Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council , Kargil, election result ,announced on 8th instant, repeats the pattern of 2018. Having won 12 seats out of 26, the National Conference (NC) emerges out as a largest party. With its ally Congress (INC) securing 10 seats the I.N.D.I.A. has truly romped home. B J P has won two seats.
Kargil is too remote to be taken note of any political development , except for the one which impinges up on defense calculations. But located as it is in that area of the country -till recently having been part of Jammu and Kashmir – and whose macro and micro management is carried out directly by the Central Ministry – Kargil’s latest political development has thrown up certain indicators which may forecast upcoming political weather in Jammu and Kashmir.
The big take away from the Kargil result is that the NC is there to stay in Ladakh, too. Many attempts were made to deny the party a political space in this Kargil election by refusing it the election symbol of Plough, which it ultimately got thanks to the Judicial intervention at the national level. Omar Abdullah, who himself led the Kargil campaign, has cemented his position as a true inheritor of the NC legacy. By choosing NC the Kargilis have shown their preference for Kashmir.
For the Congress Party Kargil electoral victory, coming rather soon after its success in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, is a matter of great satisfaction. It is an endorsement of sorts for the leadership of Rahul Gandhi who in summer spent good time in Ladakh. These victories will certainly rejuvenate the sagging morale of Congress party and its leadership which may stand them in a good stead at the time when preparations for 2024 Lok Sabha election are afoot. That given a little bit of more effort much of its lost political space can be salvaged. Rahul will have do something more than an occasional visit to a wayside motor workshop or wear a railway coolie uniform with a wheeled baggage on head.
This result gives hope to many Indians that fundamentals of the Idea of India are well founded to withstand the stormy weather. Today, we live in a highly polarized world where societies stand riven apart on sectarian considerations and people look at one another with fear and suspicion. Therefore, any campaign undertaken by anyone to overcome the feeling of insecurity which bears fruit, reinforces inter-societal and inter-communal bond among the people who live in India is welcome. ‘Nationalism’ and the sectarian rhetoric can be hyped to a limit where after it becomes a story of diminishing returns: that ‘local’ has preference over ‘national’ when it comes to the real business of providing bread, butter and the shelter.
The B JP need to understand that in politics emotions play a part only up to a point: in the long run matters of bread and butter influence a voter’s choice. True, the elections in states are fought on local issues, so the electoral reversal should not be seen as a reflection on working of the central government. But then BJP doesn’t shy away from interjecting national issues even to a municipal election. Here, abrogation of Art 370 was projected as a panacea for all ‘ills’ that, according to the BJP, ailed J&K, Ladakh including.
For the people in J&K, Kargil Election throws up many possibilities that something can be retrieved from the tremor of August the 5TH, 2019. It may add to the local politician’s confidence that BJP can be challenged successfully on a local political turf. NC and PDP have potential to reclaim major part of the political ground lost in the wake of neutralization of Art 370. They have to put their house in order and reach out to the people – afresh, address their real issues of bread and butter and not waste time and energy in pampering to the emotive issues.
We witness a strange scenario unfolding in Kashmir where a routine policy or administrative event is marked with lavishness. We see whole Valley dazzling with high voltage lights at the time when people in J&K are feeling the power cut pinch. The spectacle contrasts sharply with what prevails on the ground. The show is paraded as normalcy of sorts which, on all accounts, is still illusive. Deadly encounters of the terrorists with the security forces have become order of the day across the length and breadth of the UT, where in a number of high ranking security personal have got martyred.
A leaf seems to have been borrowed from the book written by Ex Prime Minster of the state, Late Bakhshi Ghulam Mohammed, who mastered the art to the hilt. Round the year he went places vigorously with his ‘Jashen e Kashmir’ program, just to show everything was normal in Jammu & Kashmir when, in fact, situation had turned bad in the wake of Sheikh Abdullah’s dethroning, in 1953. It took one unfortunate event, in the beginning of 1964, to dismantle the decade old ‘managed normalcy’ .
There is a fillip side to this result, also. That assembly election is pushed further away. Having seen what happened to its poll prospects in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka now nearer home BJP won’t risk unfavorable poll result in J &K, so close to the 2024 national election. That too after it has exorcised the “ ghost of Art 370’.
B L SARAF, former Principal District & Sessions Judge