Two meetings of the opposition parties, and the battle lines seem to be gradually drawing up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It is now clear that the contest is going to be between the opposition front baptized as I.N.D.I.A- an acronym for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance- and the ruling NDA.
The acronym seems to have a two-fold objective. Primarily it is catchy and easy to attract people’s imagination and encompasses in its full form the broader objective of the new alliance viz development and inclusivity to counter the BJP’s divisive agenda. Secondly, and more importantly I.N.D.I.A is some kind of a counter to the saffron brigade’s hyper-nationalism.
The two strong indicators that emanated following the Bengaluru opposition jamboree, in fact a little before that, the opposition parties’ determination to come together and that true to its style the Modi-era BJP was not going to take it lying low. So, while the opposition unity move was on the cards after having kick-started in Patna last month, suddenly the dormant NDA came to life.
The warring opposition parties coming together was a news but the NDA under Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi holding its first meeting in the last nine years made a bigger headline. There has never been any doubt that the road ahead for the opposition parties which are quietly weaving a combine around Congress would be bumpy despite two meetings taking place smoothly; and even naming the new front passed off without hiccups. And the BJP with its all-out aggressive approach will spare no effort to unsettle them.
The opposition camp reaching the limited but significant goal of naming the front without hassles is also indicative of the fact that a lot of groundwork seemed to have been done in this connection. Also, the opposition parties packed with political stalwarts have embarked on a cautious and step-by-step approach rather than moving fast and igniting the cross-connections.
Patna followed by Bengaluru meets, coming post the BJP’s dethroning in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka in recent assembly elections, visibly has an unnerving effect on camp-Modi.
If not, then why convene the near defunct NDA mostly with inconsequential and sub-regional political parties, and flaunting the number of constituents including some new and insignificant entrants replacing at least the two oldest allies of the BJP namely Shiv Sena, now represented by a broken faction, and Shiromani Akali Dal.
Precisely, and as is the Modi dispensation’s style, convening of the NDA was merely to score brownie points in this case in terms of numbers and touted as the “overwhelming support” for the ruling conglomerate and Mr Modi’s further growing popularity. So, true to the style it was touted as I.N.D.I.A’s 26 versus NDA’s 38 that included apart from truncated faction of the Sena, a break-away group of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) primarily engineered to weaken the party founder and stalwart Mr Sharad Pawar and a sundry caste-based smaller outfits. With over-arching dominance of Mr Modi as the strong selling point.
The tone and tenor, and the body language of the opposition leaders, with some mercurial and mavericks in the rank, gave an impression that they meant business. There is no doubt that the fear of Modi-regime with the unleashing effect of agencies such as CBI, Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax department, has bound them together or at least the intent was clearly visible.
Nevertheless, the ride for them is going to be bumpy not only on account of the Prime Ministerial ambitions of some of the them but also due to the inherent impulsive and manipulative nature of some among them. With Congress (read the party president Mr Mallikarjun Kharge and Mr Rahul Gandhi) declaring that they were not hankering after Prime Ministerial candidature, there still remain three points of suspicion. It will be known in the weeks ahead particularly during and after the next meeting slated to take place in Mumbai with Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray playing the host) as to how the other characters unfold.
If they would keep their soaring ambitions under wraps and play for a bigger cause or not. Their attitude in this connection will be important to determine the durability of the I.N.D.I.A. particularly when pitted against a very aggressive opponent in the Modi-Amit Shah combine.
There are primarily three leaders in the opposition camp whose movement has to be watched closely by the new alliance strategists. Ironically, at least two of them constituent the core of the strategists.
First and foremost, following developments in the NCP that has rattled the Maharashtra politics, the focus will remain on Mr Pawar. The jury is still out on whether the developments in NCP took place without his concurrence or not. The fact that he is most dreaded in the political circles for his capacity to spring surprises and keep his own guessing, makes Mr Pawar a more tricky and slippery customer than ever before. So, the opposition parties particularly the Congress will have to be wary without antagonizing him.
The second important factor would be how the mercurial Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister Ms Mamta Banerjee moves forward from here. During the Patna and Bengaluru meetings she gave an account of herself as a mellowed leader ready to accommodate her arch-rivals such as the Congress and particularly the Left parties.
The third personality in contention, though not central to sustaining the alliance but significant in putting up a united face, is the over-ambitious Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief and Delhi chief minister Mr Arvind Kejriwal. Although comparatively a new player on the country’s political firmament he has been able to make an impact in a short span of time through a different brand of aggression and an uncertain political behaviour.
His main clash is with Congress the pivot of the opposition unity. The Congress-AAP clash was visible on the issue of controversial Ordinance which the Centre brought to curtail powers of the Delhi government. Will he check his political ambition and desist from AAP acting as a vote-divider to harm the Congress as he has been cutting into the latter’s support base?
The current reality is that an opposition alliance is in place with a new identity. The other reality, which has potential to make the 2024 poll a keen contest, is that the opposition combine is in power in 11 states against the BJP governing in 15.
The major states where the opposition alliance is currently in power are Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Jharkhand. In other states like West Bengal (Trinamool Congress), Punjab and Haryana (AAP), Rajasthan, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (Congress) the opposition has a strong imprint. Together they account for more than 200 Lok Sabha seats with Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh which account for another 100 odd seats wide open to the contest.