In diplomacy, it is always heartening if immediate neighbour has got friendly relations and does not play in the hands of bigger power; this is true to Nepal after the defeat of Pro China communists lead by EX prime minister, K.P.S Oli who brought Indo-Nepal ties to the lowest ebb.
The fast turn of events in the Himalayan Kingdom preceding general election and results announced by Nepal election commission strongly indicate that five party alliance comprising NC, CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janamorcha are certain to retain power in Nepal.
Modi’s efforts help in normalisation
Prime Minister Narender Modi has visited Nepal half a dozen times so far which reflected India’s eagerness to cement strained relations which saw some change in dynamics even during the short span of coalition rule headed by Deuba.
The relations with Nepal went sour when India imposed blockade in 2015 to create pressure on Nepal to protect the citizenship rights of Mahdeshis (residents of Terai region adjacent to Bihar and Uttar Pradesh) while new constitution was being drafted.
It is an open secret that former China’s ambassador to Nepal had openly interfered in the internal affairs of Himalayan Kingdom to keep two factions of communists but failed miserably as split did take place and Oli’s rival, a faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal,’Prachanda’ refused to accept the dictate of China to join hands with Nepali Congress.
India did contribute to help Nepal during the pandemic crisis which was purely on humanitarian basis and common people appreciated the gesture.
Karamveer Yojna may be implemented
Experts say that Deuba had put execution of Karamveer project on hold to recruit 28000 Youths from Nepal in the Indian army and now the hurdle will be cleared as the existing coalition may be in office soon. The Indian army chief had threatened to withdraw these posts but the Indian government refrained from it to protect old ties hence the ProJet may be implemented after the new government is installed in Kathmandu.
US may enhance it cooperation
The United States has already taken financial initiatives to strengthen its foothold in Kathmandu to isolate China which has been trying to block it through Nepali dispensation. Deuba’s Coalition government took a different stand as the US normally provides financial assistance as free aid or grant whereas China’s Debt Trap Policy puts the borrowing nation under huge liabilities and starts dictating terms which has already ruined countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and dozens of poor nations in the world. To improve Nepal’s economic situation, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) had signed, in 2017, a $500 million Compact with Nepal to expand Nepal’s electricity transmission infrastructure and improve its road maintenance regime but the previous Oli government tried to block it.
Setback to China
It will be a big set back to China which has been encouraging communists led by former prime minister, K.P.S.Oli as he has failed to deliver in these elections. The people have rejected his party, CPN (UML) and Nepal election commission has announced details of seats won by all parties for 165 seats in the house of 275 whereas remaining 110 posts will be calculated on the basis of the Proportional Representation system. Nepali Congress has emerged as the single largest party with 57 seats followed by 44 of the CPN (UML), 18 of the CPN (Maoist Centre), 10 won by the CPN (Unified Socialist). Similarly, the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Rastriya Swatantra Party have won seven seats each while the Loktantrik Samajbadi bagged four constituencies followed by three of the Nagarik Unmukti Party, and one each by the Rastriya Janamorcha Nepal, Nepal Workers and Peasants’ Party and Janamat Party.
Five party alliance
The five party alliance has won 85 seats out of total 165 seats of parliament in general election held on Nov 20, 2022 which was jointly led by prime minister and Nepali Congress chief , Sher Bahadur Deuba, Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) of Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ is definite to form new government. According to experts in Kathmandu, Dueba needs around 10 more to form the government and smaller parties are waiting in wings to support new government like CK Raut-led Janamat party having seven seats, Nagarik Unmukti Party (People’s Freedom Party), four seats and Independents numbering 20.
Challenges before prime minister Deuba
As per analysts, It is an established fact that China has been exploring the deteriorating ties between India and Nepal which took its roots in 2015 when a blockade was imposed by Modi government to create pressure to help over fifteen lakh Mededhis residing in Terai region of Nepal who were being discriminated against the right to get citizenship. Now China will be on the back foot as the new government will be keen to improve ties with India which is a Bad news for China.
Second, China had started interfering in internal affairs of Nepal and completely won over the Oli faction of communists who had come to power by defeating Nepali Congress 2017. Now new government will face no hurdle in strengthening and repairing the old ties with India which will be the foremost task of the new government.
Third, Chinese President Xi had made personal efforts to woo Nepal during the Oli regime and visited the Himalaya Kingdom twice which resulted in huge announcements of financial aid running in billions of dollars. Experts say that investment by China in Nepal has a twin objective. First, large scale investment with good returns and thereby weaning away Nepal from India. It also helps to change the politics in Nepal in favour of China. Second, the open border of Nepal with India can facilitate the smuggling of Chinese goods to India on a large scale. Deuba may check these initiatives without offending China which has allured Himalayan Kingdom in Debt trap. But Xi is bound to be disappointed as Oli has let him down and failed to win the confidence of voters in these polls. Fourth, former Chinese ambassador to Nepal had brazenly lobbied to save Oli government and tried to pressurise Prachanda faction to get united but move proved a big flop as Nepali Congress and two other parties including Prachanda ensured the humiliating defeat of Oli on the floor of parliament on year back.
Now such lobbying may not have much scope as the Oli party has been relegated to the background in elections. In final assessment, normalisation of ties between Nepal and India is strategically essential to checkmate China which has already created a huge trouble on the Line of Control and Deuba government can be trusted in view of its past positive initiatives.
(K. S. TOMAR is Political analyst who covered Nepal for six years as a representative of a Premier English national daily
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.