What stands between a repeat Congress victory in Rajasthan, to buck the trend of change of government after every five years, and the electoral history repeating itself in favour of the BJP?
The saffron party has all but one thing going in their favour. A formidable leader in Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi, on whose face the assembly elections have been fought, well-oiled and well-resourced party organization and electoral machinery, a well-thought strategy and all the ingredients required to whip up a poll frenzy.
One thing which is glaringly missing in the BJP’s election strategy in the desert state is a chief ministerial face. There are plenty of them but none formally declared. So, the problem of plenty rather than the proverbial ‘more the merrier’.
One strong factor which stands between BJP and its victory in Rajasthan is the former two-time chief minister Mrs Vasundhara Raje. Though she has for the past some time tried to reconcile with the party high command (read Mr Modi and Home Minister Mr Amit Shah) without compromising on her ego, it did not cut ice with the top leadership in declaring her the chief ministerial face.
However, given the fact that she wields considerable influence in Rajasthan, cutting across regions, religion and caste, it was difficult for the party to altogether ignore her-short of making her chief minister candidate. An olive branch was handed over to her in the form of giving party tickets to majority of her supporters. This was not before the high command tried every effort to dictate terms to her which was clear from the fact that the names of her supporters figured only in the last few lists.
Not the one to relent, Mrs Raje stood her ground firmly without either bending or compromising on her firm beliefs strongly embedded in her mass-appeal and capacity to carry all sections along. Despite a dozen other contenders for the chief minister’s post- in the event of BJP securing majority- none possessed these qualities. So, in many respects her qualities of head and heart not only raise her stature shade higher than the other contenders but make her indispensable.
Given the current model being followed by the BJP where the only eligible face to be portrayed in election after election is that of Mr Modi based on his prominence and high communication skills. This model has been followed in the current phase of five-state assembly elections. The others such as Mr Raman Singh, ex chief minister of Chhattisgarh, and Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan, chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, took the things into their stride and settled on the high command’s terms and conditions. But not Mrs Raje who even after managing tickets for majority of her supporters, remained in her own frame of mind.
Notwithstanding the fact that she was on more than one occasion humiliated on stage by other BJP leaders such as union Jal Shakti Minister and one of the chief ministerial-candidate-though not contesting assembly election- Mr Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, she not only took into her stride but acted on her will in the matter of planning her election campaign and choosing candidates of her choice whom she preferred to back.
Ignoring the dictates of the high command, she worked behind the scenes in a more guarded way. Not only she reached to some of the disgruntled leaders who had been denied tickets, but she painstakingly campaigned for her supporters. This despite the fact that the party did make optimal use of her services.
Barely few days before the election visuals of Mr Shekhawat snatching a poster from Mrs Raje’s hands which depicted launch of a poll-promise, in the full view of some central leaders, became viral. This in many ways was repeat of similar incidents happened earlier in the presence of BJP president Mr J P Nadda where in an election rally she was prevented from speaking.
Despite reports that Mrs Raje’s services are not being elaborately used in election campaigning, she reportedly drew her own plans focused on campaigning for her own supporters numbering nearly 40. If she manages to secure victory for majority of them in the face of severe internal bickering in the BJP and a formidable incumbent chief minister Mr Ashok Gehlot who is riding high on his good governance plank and pro-people schemes agenda, this group could prove to be crucial in deciding not only her but even her party’s fate.
As is often stated in the political echelons of Rajasthan that due to anti-Raje stance of the BJP high command, an arrangement of quid pro quo has developed between her and chief minister Mr Gehlot. Do the two leaders supplement and compliment each other, as in the past? Will the arrangement continue this time around.
Two contrasting electoral models were at work in Rajasthan assembly elections this time. While BJP relied heavily on a centralized Modi-centric model with elections having been fought in the name of party symbol ‘Kamal’, the Congress for a change and on the contrary followed a decentralized model with heavy reliance on local leadership. In fact, the party contested the election in the name of chief minister Mr Gehlot and performance of his government.
All through the campaign Mr Gehlot (read Congress) had the rare advantage to set the narrative as in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and even Mizoram, and not the other way round. This was in contrast to the scenario witnessed during the last decade where BJP was dictating the terms, setting agenda and forcing Congress to follow its narrative. This most of the times led to Congress being pushed to the wall and becoming defensive.
For a moment forgetting the BJP’s collective leadership formula evolved to resolve the leadership tangle, the party has over a dozen claimants for the top post in the state. What gives Mrs Raje a head start over others is her stature and mass appeal and to her disadvantage is a high command hostile towards her. The fact that she has stood her ground and managed party mandate for most of her supporters, amply shows her clout. Ignore me at your own peril, was in many ways her refrain to the party high command.
There is no doubt that crass factionalism in the state unit of BJP has left the party cadres confused. Repeated attempts by the central leadership to repeatedly humiliate her publicly and the presence of a dozen contenders for the chief minister’s post has added to this confusion.
Will BJP be able to pull through under such circumstances and repeat the history of change of government every five years?