The 3rd Belt and Road Forum (BRF) was held in Beijing on October 17-18. Its stated purpose was to take stock on the achievements of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which was launched soon after Xi Jinping became the country’s President in 2013. The BRI sought to knit China and countries in Eurasia, South-East and South Asia, Africa, South America and even Europe in a physical connectivity web financed with Chinese capital. Within this web, China was to be the hub and other countries the spokes. BRI’s unstated objective was to spread China’s influence and build a group of countries which would become its camp followers. Unlike his predecessors who had followed Deng Xiaoping’s advice to remain patient and build the country’s strength Xi Jinping, soon after becoming President, indicated that China’s time had come and it would press a for primacy in the world, challenging the world’s pre-eminent country, the United States and the international order. The BRI was one of the instruments for that purpose.
Over the past decade, as China constructed connectivity projects—roads, railways, ports and airports—some became unviable. They became debt traps such as those in Sri Lanka. As repayment for the debt China began to acquire land. Even if these acquisitions were on long term lease it led to feelings in these countries that shadows were being cast on their sovereignty. Besides, the Chinese style of project construction in which apart from material even labour was brought from China gave little benefit to the economies of these countries. Finally, in some cases these projects were located or went through areas in which neighbouring countries had sovereignty. Indeed, these considerations led India to keep itself away from BRI.
In the past decade China’s power and stock has risen in the world. Hence, despite misgivings many countries did not reject the BRI but went along. They obviously did not wish to annoy a rapidly rising power. This sentiment is strong in the developing world—or the Global South—as it is now called. It is this which led to the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson confidently say on October 19 “The BRF was attended by over 10000 registered representatives from 151 countries and 41 international organisations. The scale of participation has once again showcased the tremendous appeal and global influence of Belt and Road Cooperation”. Among the leaders who were present in Beijing for BRF 3 were Russian President Putin, Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Argentine President Alberto Fernandez—all members of the G20 group. In addition, a number of African countries top leaders also attended as did the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
Chinese President Xi Jinping gave the keynote address at the inaugural function of BRF 3. Naturally, he extolled its accomplishments. He said “Belt and Road cooperation has extended from the Eurasian continent to Africa and Latin America. More than 150 countries and over 30 international organizations have signed Belt and Road documents”. However, a close reading of Xi Jinping’s address makes it clear that China has been concerned by the criticism of BRI projects and has sought to bring about changes in the way it is now pursuing it. In addition to the large projects China is now going in for as Xi Jinping said ‘small yet smart’ people-centered programs. To counter the charge that China was thrusting infrastructure in developing countries which was in its interest and not of the partner country the Chinese President emphasized the principle of “planning together, building together and benefiting together”. And, further “the philosophy of open, green and clean cooperation, and the goal of pursuing high-standard, people centered and sustainable cooperation”. Outlining different aspects of BRI he said that it had “composed a symphony of friendship in the new era” and represented “humanity’s joint pursuit of development for all”. These fine words cannot mask the reality that BRI is meant to promote China’s interests and not those of the partner countries.
In a not so veiled counter to attempts to contain China’s rise Xi Jinping said “Viewing others’ development as a threat or taking economic interdependence as a risk will not make one’s life better or speed up one’s development”. He went on to say that “Ideological confrontation, geopolitical rivalry and bloc politics is not a choice for us. What we stand against are unilateral sanctions, economic coercion and decoupling and supply chain disruption”. While these words may have comforted Putin whose country is facing Western sanctions imposed because of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 it is unlikely that they would have much of an impression on the leaders of those countries which are facing mountains of Chinese debt because of ‘white-elephant infrastructure projects.
On the future direction of BRI, Xi Jinping announced eight “major steps” that will be pursued. These consist of areas which are naturally in China’s interest as supporting an open economy—a euphemism for manufacturing remaining in China even as it emerges as a scientific and technological power-house. They also include an emphasis on green projects and the promotion of ‘integrity based’ cooperation. The latter is particularly important for their have persistent charges of Chinese companies bribing the leaders of developing countries to the detriment of the interests of their countries.
The BRI impacts Indian interests and Indian policy makers would do well to see Amitabh Revi’s excellent interview of BRI specialist Professor Garlick now at Prague University. Garlick’s who is no blind admirer of China assesses that China is largely ahead of India in the Global South. He also focuses on Chinese inroads in India’s immediate neighbourhood. He acknowledges that India has the potential to push-back against China and suggests that such a process should begin with its neighbours. These are sobering thoughts for India which has pushed itself as the Voice of the Global South but Garlick’s views cannot simply be dismissed as being biased.